As NATO gets ready for a massive troop surge in Helmand Province, the local population flees ahead of what both sides promise to be the Mother of All Firefights. The Taleban have sneered at NATO’s warning to move away or lay down arms in this important bastion, the center of the drugs trade which finances their operations and promise a bloodbath. But is it really necessary?
Operation Moshtarak (“Together”, in Dari) is about to be unleashed by NATO in the southern Helmand town of Marjah, the largest population center under Taliban control in the region and the largest counter-insurgency operation since the Afghanistan campaign began in 2001. 15,000 NATO and Afghan troops, plus special forces are poised to attack a force of around 1,000 Taliban fighters, who have been warned to lay down their arms or leave the area. But they refuse.
The result is a mass exodus of tens of thousands of civilians who fear being caught up in what promises to be a bitter fight.
The impending engagement constitutes a critical moment in the operation in Afghanistan, where the Taliban gains increasing momentum and where increased engagement on the battlefield means more civilian casualties – and the ensuing loss of public opinion. Therefore, is a massive engagement really the answer?
NATO has been in Afghanistan since 2001, a war whose cost is estimated at around 252.5 billion USD to date. Frustrated by the Taliban gaining control on a sustainable basis in increasing areas of the country, NATO commanders asked for more troops. The first surge of 21,000 arrived last March.
Since then, engagements have escalated rather than decreased and casualties have reached record proportions. Meanwhile, the Taliban have managed to secure a foothold in every region where the majority of the population are Pashtuns and have expanded from the south and east of Afghanistan into the center and north of the country, despite the fact that combat operations by NATO increased by 55 per cent, air strikes by 39 percent and the number of bombs dropped per month by 460 per cent since the surge began.
In 2009, the Taliban killed twice the number of NATO troops that were killed in 2008. So are massive military operations the answer?
No, for a number of reasons. Firstly, the Taliban have learned how to engage NATO and avoid confrontations in which they are heavily outgunned, preferring to retreat fighting and inflicting as many casualties as possible on what is seen as an invading foreign force of occupation.
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